하나은행 하나금융경영연구소

▶ 조선산업의 호황 지속으로 후방산업인 조선기자재 산업의 성장 지속 ● 세계 해상물동량의 증가세가 지속됨에 따라 선복수요량이 급증하였으며, 이는 신조선 발주 증가로 이어져 조선산업의 호황을 지속시키고 있음 ● 조선산업의 호황 지속은 선박제조원가의 56%를 차지하고 있는 조선 기자재산업의 호황으로 이어져, 세계 조선기자재시장은 61조원 규모로 급성장함 ● 국내 조선기자재 산업의 시장규모는 전세계 시장의 24% 수준인 14.4조원 수준으로 추정되며, 이 중에서 선박용 엔진을 포함한 기관부의 비중이 55% 수준을 차지하고 있음 ● 세계 조선산업의 호황을 한국 및 중국 조선업체가 주도하고 이러한 추세가 심화될 것으로 전망됨에 따라, 근거리에 장기적 수요처를 보유하게 된 국내 기자재 산업은 급성장세를 지속할 전망 ▶ 조선업체에 대한 의존도가 높으며, 대부분의 업체가 중소기업 ● 수요처인 조선업체에 대한 의존도가 절대적인 산업구조가 형성되어 있으며, 기자재업체들의 분포 또한 조선업체가 밀집한 부산, 경남 및 신생업체들이 분포한 전남 지역에 집중되어 있음 ● 조선기자재 산업은 제조 품목별로 선체부, 기관부, 의장부 및 전기전자부로 대분류되며, 조선업체에 대한 의존도는 선체부 > 의장부 > 전기전자부 > 기관부 순으로 높음 ● 기자재 업체들의 84%가 종업원 100명미만의 중소기업이며 상위 50여개 업체가 전체 시장의 60%를 점유하고 있는 완전경쟁시장을 형성하고 있음 ● 선박의 대형화 추세가 전선종에 걸쳐 확대됨에 따라 기존의 시장지배력을 보유한 업체들의 경우 기술력을 바탕으로 대형화된 신제품개발에 주력하고 있으나, 대부분의 중소업체는 시장의 변화 Trend에 뒤떨어지고 있음 ● 따라서 조선산업의 중장기 업황이 불확실한 상황이 장기화될 경우, 경쟁열위에 있는 의장부 및 전기전자부 일부 중소업체들의 경영악화가 우려됨 ▶ 2012년까지 성장세는 지속되나 업체별 수익편차는 더욱 확대될 전망 ● 2007년까지의 조선업체별 수주잔량과 2010년까지의 연평균 신조발주량을 고려하면 조선업체의 수주잔량이 증가세를 지속할 2012년까지 국내 조선 기자재산업은 연평균 18%의 높은 매출 성장세를 지속할 전망 ● 국내 기자재업체가 세계 시장을 장악하고 있는 엔진 및 기관부 시장의 경우 공급자 중심의 시장이 형성되어 있어, 관련업체들은 외형 성장 및 수익 개선을 모두 시현할 전망 ● 선체부의 경우 대부분의 자재를 조선업체로부터 공급받으므로 총매출 중 인건비의 비중이 매우 크고, 의장부의 경우 업체간 가격경쟁이 지속됨에 따라 수익개선은 불투명할 전망 ● 전기전자부는 자동화시스템이나 운항시스템 등 차별화된 기술을 보유한 업체들은 수익개선이 가능할 전망이나, 일부 중전기기 제조업체들은 수입자재의 가격 상승 및 업체간 경쟁심화로 수익개선이 불투명할 전망 ● 조선업체들의 건조물량 급증에 따른 인력확보 경쟁으로 기자재 업체, 특히 선체부 및 의장부 인력의 조선업체로의 이직이 확대될 가능성이 높아 관련 업체들의 인력 수급은 선결과제로 부각될 전망 ▶ 기관부 업체를 중심으로 안정적인 사업구조를 보유한 업체에 선별적 여신지원 필요 ● 기자재별 수익차별화가 심화됨에 따라 조선시장과 기자재시장과의 순환적호황 예측은 확대 해석일 수 있으며, 조선시장의 호황이 국내 중소 기자재업체의 수익 개선으로 이어질지도 불투명한 상황 ● 호황이 지속될 것으로 예측하여 기술개발없이 대규모 생산설비투자에만 주력한다면 신조시장이 급격히 침체될 경우 오히려 수익악화 및 금융비용 증가에 따른 경영 위기를 겪게 될 리스크도 존재 ● 따라서, 하나금융그룹은 조선시황 변동에 대한 리스크가 상대적으로 낮은 기관부 및 안정적인 수요처를 확보한 선체부 업체를 중심으로 선별적인 여신을 지원하는 것이 바람직함

▶ The ongoing shipbuilding boom will lead to continuing growth for the shipbuilding equipment industry ● As global maritime shipping volumes continue to rise, demand for vessels has risen sharply, leading to increasing orders for new ships and an ongoing boom in the shipbuilding industry. ● Shipbuilding equipment accounts for 56% of the cost of building a new ship, and the boom in shipbuilding is driving a surge in the shipbuilding equipment industry as well. The global shipbuilding equipment industry has grown rapidly to reach 61 trillion won. ● The domestic shipbuilding equipment industry accounts for 14.4 trillion won, or 24%, of the global market. Engine components, including ship engines, account for 55% of the domestic market. ● Korea and China are likely to widen their lead in the global shipbuilding boom, and the domestic shipbuilding equipment industry is forecast to continue to grow rapidly thanks to long-term clients in the region. ▶ Most shipbuilding equipment firms are small-to-medium sized, and have a high dependence on shipbuilding companies ● The shipbuilding equipment industry depends heavily on the client shipbuilding firms, and are mostly located in areas with a large number of shipbuilding firms, such as Busan and Gyeongnam, and in Jeonnam, with its high concentration of new companies. ● The shipbuilding equipment industry can be broadly divided into hulls, outfitting, electronics, and engine components, by order of dependence. ● 84% of shipbuilding equipment firms are small-to-medium sized with less than 100 employees. The market is highly competitive with the top 50 companies accounting for 60% market share. ● Ships of all types are becoming larger, and the leading companies are concentrating their efforts on leveraging their technological prowess to develop new, larger vessels. However, most small-to-medium sized firms are failing to keep pace with the changing needs of the market. ▶ The growth trend will continue until 2012, but variations in profitability by company will increase ● Taking into account the total number of new ship orders through 2007 and the annual average number of new ships to be built up to 2010, shipbuilders can be expected to have an increasing number of orders until 2012, and the domestic shipbuilding equipment industry will maintain average growth of 18% per year in revenues. ● Domestic shipbuilding equipment companies dominate the global market for engines and engine components. Conditions in this market favor suppliers, and related companies are expected to record growth in turnover and improving profitability. ● In the hull sector, equipment manufacturers source most of their raw materials from the shipbuilding companies, and a large portion of total revenues goes towards labor costs. The outfitting sector is characterized by continuing price competition between manufacturers, making improvements in profitability uncertain. ● Electronics companies that possess differentiated technology, such as automated systems or navigation systems, will be able to improve profitability. However, manufacturers of heavy electric machinery are suffering from rising prices for imported raw materials and intensifying competition, making improvements in profitability unlikely. ● The rapid increase in the number of ships under construction has led to competition for skilled labor. Increasing numbers of workers, especially those in the hull and outfitting fields, are expected to switch jobs from shipbuilding companies to shipbuilding equipment companies. As a result, supply and demand conditions for skilled personnel are likely to tighten. ▶ Companies with stable business models, especially engine component firms, will need credit ● As shipbuilding equipment companies become more differentiated in terms of profitability, the cyclical expansion of the shipbuilding and shipbuilding equipment markets is expected to continue. However, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to increased profitability for domestic small-to-medium sized shipbuilding equipment manufacturers. ● If large investments in production facilities instead of new technological development are made with the expectation that the current boom will continue, a rapid slowdown in demand for new ships would greatly increase the risk of a crisis marked by deteriorating profitability and increasing financial costs. ● As a result, Hana Financial Group should be selective in extending credit and focus on engine component companies that have relatively low risk associated with changes in the shipbuilding business environment, and on hull manufacturers that can steadily increase the number of clients.

▶ The ongoing shipbuilding boom will lead to continuing growth for the shipbuilding equipment industry ● As global maritime shipping volumes continue to rise, demand for vessels has risen sharply, leading to increasing orders for new ships and an ongoing boom in the shipbuilding industry. ● Shipbuilding equipment accounts for 56% of the cost of building a new ship, and the boom in shipbuilding is driving a surge in the shipbuilding equipment industry as well. The global shipbuilding equipment industry has grown rapidly to reach 61 trillion won. ● The domestic shipbuilding equipment industry accounts for 14.4 trillion won, or 24%, of the global market. Engine components, including ship engines, account for 55% of the domestic market. ● Korea and China are likely to widen their lead in the global shipbuilding boom, and the domestic shipbuilding equipment industry is forecast to continue to grow rapidly thanks to long-term clients in the region. ▶ Most shipbuilding equipment firms are small-to-medium sized, and have a high dependence on shipbuilding companies ● The shipbuilding equipment industry depends heavily on the client shipbuilding firms, and are mostly located in areas with a large number of shipbuilding firms, such as Busan and Gyeongnam, and in Jeonnam, with its high concentration of new companies. ● The shipbuilding equipment industry can be broadly divided into hulls, outfitting, electronics, and engine components, by order of dependence. ● 84% of shipbuilding equipment firms are small-to-medium sized with less than 100 employees. The market is highly competitive with the top 50 companies accounting for 60% market share. ● Ships of all types are becoming larger, and the leading companies are concentrating their efforts on leveraging their technological prowess to develop new, larger vessels. However, most small-to-medium sized firms are failing to keep pace with the changing needs of the market. ▶ The growth trend will continue until 2012, but variations in profitability by company will increase ● Taking into account the total number of new ship orders through 2007 and the annual average number of new ships to be built up to 2010, shipbuilders can be expected to have an increasing number of orders until 2012, and the domestic shipbuilding equipment industry will maintain average growth of 18% per year in revenues. ● Domestic shipbuilding equipment companies dominate the global market for engines and engine components. Conditions in this market favor suppliers, and related companies are expected to record growth in turnover and improving profitability. ● In the hull sector, equipment manufacturers source most of their raw materials from the shipbuilding companies, and a large portion of total revenues goes towards labor costs. The outfitting sector is characterized by continuing price competition between manufacturers, making improvements in profitability uncertain. ● Electronics companies that possess differentiated technology, such as automated systems or navigation systems, will be able to improve profitability. However, manufacturers of heavy electric machinery are suffering from rising prices for imported raw materials and intensifying competition, making improvements in profitability unlikely. ● The rapid increase in the number of ships under construction has led to competition for skilled labor. Increasing numbers of workers, especially those in the hull and outfitting fields, are expected to switch jobs from shipbuilding companies to shipbuilding equipment companies. As a result, supply and demand conditions for skilled personnel are likely to tighten. ▶ Companies with stable business models, especially engine component firms, will need credit ● As shipbuilding equipment companies become more differentiated in terms of profitability, the cyclical expansion of the shipbuilding and shipbuilding equipment markets is expected to continue. However, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to increased profitability for domestic small-to-medium sized shipbuilding equipment manufacturers. ● If large investments in production facilities instead of new technological development are made with the expectation that the current boom will continue, a rapid slowdown in demand for new ships would greatly increase the risk of a crisis marked by deteriorating profitability and increasing financial costs. ● As a result, Hana Financial Group should be selective in extending credit and focus on engine component companies that have relatively low risk associated with changes in the shipbuilding business environment, and on hull manufacturers that can steadily increase the number of clients.