일반산업
Analysis on Risks Faced by Shipping Business from Excessive Shipping Capacity
2011-10-10JANG, Kyung-Suk
목차
요약
■ Shipping rates are dependent on ocean freight transport volume (demand) and delivery of new ships (supply).
● Ocean freight transport volume is closely tied to trade volume changes depending on business conditions, while supply of new ships is inelastic as they are delivered in 2 to 3 years after order.
● Depending on exposure to demand and supply, shipping services are divided into non-liners whose rates are set under complete competition, and liner shipping companies whose competition is partially limited due to strategic alliance.
● Despite different rating methods, both non-liner and liner services suffer lower shipping rates attributable to falling demand after the financial crisis and excessive shipping capacity caused by growing supply.
■ The shipping industry started to witness a growing problem from excessive shipping capacity and ship orders owing to steady supply of new ships since 2010.
● Concerns were growing amid excess supply and plunging shipping rates, as new ships ordered in the boom period have been steadily delivered since 2010 with more orders placed.
● Container ships are expected to suffer significantly from intense competition between ship owners to order mega containers until now since the recovery phase in 2010.
● Bulk carriers are experiencing less challenges from excessive capacity with decreasing orders, although there were rising concerns over soaring orders in the 1st half of 2010 fueled by shipping boom (significant rebound unlikely).
● Tanker ships may have to deal with excessive shipping capacity for the longest period among others, affected by continued orders for VLCC, in particular, since the financial crisis.
■ The financial industry should examine more risk factors expected to emerge with market recovery, before entering financing services for the shipping business.
● Key factors to be considered in credit evaluation are the industrial practices of operating ships at low speed and laying up more ships to address excessive capacity, which however may pose an obstacle to market recovery later on.
● Financial institutions should evaluate shipping businesses from every angle, given potential negative impacts on liquidity of ship owners with high-priced ships ordered in the boom period and to be delivered in the next 2 years.
● However, they may seek business opportunities in those with more low-priced ships ordered after the financial crisis, as they are more in a better position to record sound performance.
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