경영
IT Business Leadership Will Weaken
2010-10-07GWAK, Young-H
목차
요약
IT sector drove up GDP growth rate in 2010 1H
A full flown recovery of IT sector led global economic recovery in 2010 1H. It is analyzed that the IT sector's leadership has been weaker than in the past, but the IT sector is still leading economy ahead of one to two months
IT recovery and resolution of the financial crisis in the US have contributed to a global
economic recovery. Due to its high dependence on foreign trade, a slowdown of trade
financing resulting from the financial crisis has sharply slowed down the IT sector during the financial crisis
Recovery of computer hardware-oriented facility investment by US companies has a
positive impact on their export to China, leading to a increase in Korea's intermediate
material export and a increase in production of IT production materials in Japan
IT sector will go through soft adjustment in 2H
IT's contribution to US GDP growth rate in 2010 2Q was 21.3%. If IT sector growth slows down, GDP growth rate is likely to significantly slow down in the future. IT facility
investment made in 2010 1H is the base effect. As production growth rate of key items
except computer started to drop in 2010 1H, the IT sector will be adjusted
In Japan, the IT sector has recovered with focus on IT production materials. However,
as inventory level recently increases, the IT sector is highly likely to be adjusted soon.
In addition, with its high dependence on foreign trade, domestic IT sector will be directly affected by a slowdown in global IT sector
Korea's IT sector recovery is robust, but the power to increase semiconductor export
is running out. Growth rate of IT export volume has sharply fallen and the recent growth is attributable to unit price. Even though favorable conditions in the IT sector continues in 2H, IT production growth rate will sharply drop and the sector's contribution to GDP growth rate will significantly fall
Additional growth of global IT sector is limited
Global IT sector growth is highly likely to be modest and interest in the sector will slow
down. This is attributable to lack of factors that unexpectedly contributed to IT sector
recovery in 2010 1H (i.e. base effect and investment environment)
IT business cycle will be adjusted in the mid- to long-term. US IT facility investment cycle reached a short-term peak in 2007. Considering IT demand and financial conditions, IT investment leadership will significantly weaken
IT sector slowdown raises concern over Korea economic growth slowdown
IT sector leadership over the overall economy still remain. However, such leadership has slowed down compared to in the past IT bubble. Nonetheless, the sector showed comparable leadership with the IT bubble between 1995 and 2000 in 2010 2H
A slowdown in global financial system and liquidity, lack of base effect, and other factors will have a negative impact on IT recovery in 2H. If IT sector's contribution to economic growth significantly falls, it will be impossible for the sector to lead favorable conditions of global economy
Unlike US and Japan, IT production ratio is gradually increasing and its dependence on foreign trade is also expanding in Korea. Accordingly, export in 2H and economic growth are highly likely to slow down. In addition, as IT sector's recovery trend is not spreading into other sectors during the economic recovery, a gap between economic indicators and real economy is widening in Korea
A full flown recovery of IT sector led global economic recovery in 2010 1H. It is analyzed that the IT sector's leadership has been weaker than in the past, but the IT sector is still leading economy ahead of one to two months
IT recovery and resolution of the financial crisis in the US have contributed to a global
economic recovery. Due to its high dependence on foreign trade, a slowdown of trade
financing resulting from the financial crisis has sharply slowed down the IT sector during the financial crisis
Recovery of computer hardware-oriented facility investment by US companies has a
positive impact on their export to China, leading to a increase in Korea's intermediate
material export and a increase in production of IT production materials in Japan
IT sector will go through soft adjustment in 2H
IT's contribution to US GDP growth rate in 2010 2Q was 21.3%. If IT sector growth slows down, GDP growth rate is likely to significantly slow down in the future. IT facility
investment made in 2010 1H is the base effect. As production growth rate of key items
except computer started to drop in 2010 1H, the IT sector will be adjusted
In Japan, the IT sector has recovered with focus on IT production materials. However,
as inventory level recently increases, the IT sector is highly likely to be adjusted soon.
In addition, with its high dependence on foreign trade, domestic IT sector will be directly affected by a slowdown in global IT sector
Korea's IT sector recovery is robust, but the power to increase semiconductor export
is running out. Growth rate of IT export volume has sharply fallen and the recent growth is attributable to unit price. Even though favorable conditions in the IT sector continues in 2H, IT production growth rate will sharply drop and the sector's contribution to GDP growth rate will significantly fall
Additional growth of global IT sector is limited
Global IT sector growth is highly likely to be modest and interest in the sector will slow
down. This is attributable to lack of factors that unexpectedly contributed to IT sector
recovery in 2010 1H (i.e. base effect and investment environment)
IT business cycle will be adjusted in the mid- to long-term. US IT facility investment cycle reached a short-term peak in 2007. Considering IT demand and financial conditions, IT investment leadership will significantly weaken
IT sector slowdown raises concern over Korea economic growth slowdown
IT sector leadership over the overall economy still remain. However, such leadership has slowed down compared to in the past IT bubble. Nonetheless, the sector showed comparable leadership with the IT bubble between 1995 and 2000 in 2010 2H
A slowdown in global financial system and liquidity, lack of base effect, and other factors will have a negative impact on IT recovery in 2H. If IT sector's contribution to economic growth significantly falls, it will be impossible for the sector to lead favorable conditions of global economy
Unlike US and Japan, IT production ratio is gradually increasing and its dependence on foreign trade is also expanding in Korea. Accordingly, export in 2H and economic growth are highly likely to slow down. In addition, as IT sector's recovery trend is not spreading into other sectors during the economic recovery, a gap between economic indicators and real economy is widening in Korea